The Big Sleep

As the autumnal foliage lays a crimson blanket under which the Northern sun prepares to hibernate for the next six months, thousands (millions?) around the globe turns their swollen eyes to computer and television screens to survey the vast wealth of talent that may prove to awaken as the ultimate sleeper selection in upcoming NBA fantasy drafts. Who will find their diamond in the rough? And who will waste selections on fool's gold while waiver players brimming with talent would be a wiser bet? My take is as follows:

Sleeper, n.
A player who will perform much better than people generally expect, often under one or more of the following conditions:

A) The Breakout Season -- for young players who are in the same situation, but ready to put it (occasional flashes of brilliance) all together (consistant production / lack of injury). Gerald Wallace. Josh Smith. Dwight Howard. These are names you will hear on the "Ready to Break Out" list.

B) Team Change -- Being traded or having PT open up on your roster allows you to shine. Production is proportional to situation and minutes. Zach Randolph won MIP two years ago because his minutes doubled. Steve Nash won two MVPs because he joined a team custom-built to give him assists.

C) Coaching Change -- A new coach or philosophy will dramatically affect numbers. Nellie will increase the volume of possesions and the minutes of perimeter players in Golden State, boding well for Monta Ellis and less so for Ike Diogu. Boston has the same coach, but aquiring Telfair and Rondo in the off-season ensures more of a running game. Sure teams will score more against these guys, but players on the Celtics and Warriors will all increase production due to increased number of shots (and assists, and rebounds...)

D) Post-Injury -- People forget about good players who were just injured the previous season; Tracy McGrady put up a ho-hum 24-6-4 last season and will CERTAINLY improve upon that this year. But if you look at the SG/SF rankings, you won't find him in the top 5, even 10 in some drafts. Also, how will Diaw's numbers be affected with the return of Amare after microfracture surgery?

E) The Rookie Year -- It's hard to accurately estimate how well rookies will play. Thus, any rookie could be a sleeper if you make the right guess. My money's on Rudy Gay: he's shooting over 15 FGAs per in the preseason, along with 2 steals and 1.7 blocks in 26 minutes. Pau's injury will open up not only minutes, but a go-to scoring option that Rudy will likely become before season's end.

F) The Contract Year--people play better when they wanna get paid. Watch out for Vince Carter, among others. This is a factor to be considered, and will bump production from otherwise uninteresting prospects.





So, who not to sleep on?




10. Nene
This man is a beast--the only one of "my guys" from the '02 draft (Yao, Manu, and Amare) yet to destroy the league--and the combination of his full recovery, Camby's brittleness and K-Mart's dis-favor with George Karl makes the Brazillian millionaire a prime sleeper candidate, considering he was out 81 games last season. He is a tremendous athlete, an excellent passer, and exactly what the Nuggets need in the pain on both ends of the floor. The premium on centers makes him an excellent late pick-up--he beats out Kwame Brown by a hair...




9. TJ Ford
The new general in Toronto--that doens't sound like much, until you consider he is to the Raptors what Steve Nash was the the Suns: a Brian Colangelo franchise-changer. They traded a rookie-scale PF who shoots threes and dropped 48 points last season to get this guy: he WILL perform. He is already besties with Chris Bosh, a good sign. No three-ball, but expect Jason Kidd-like numbers from the former collegiate Player of the Year.



8. Mike Dunlevy
Last season, I HATED Mike D. Now I'm intrigued: new coach Don Nelson insists he'll play him at Point-Forward, and he'll likely be elligble at PF early on. Given the coaching change and their lack of big-men with run-and-gun skill, Dunlevy is up for a boost in minutes, touches, and confidence since Nellie made him a captain. Expect increases all around, especially in points and assists.


7. Charlie Villenueva
On the other side of the Ford deal, the Bucks not only cleared out their frontcourt to give Charlie V minutes, they lost Andrew Bogut for the first six weeks leaving all the low-post touches to their newest rising star. He may struggle at first, but this man has 20-9-4 potential, as assuming Bogut's role of high-post passer in the preseason has demonstrated. Excellent 3pt stroke as well. Nasty.




6. Raymond Felton
Mentor Brevin Knight just twisted his ankle, and someone will need put in the minutes to cover those 8.8 assists. Last year's stats won't show it, but Felton's second half was nearly as good as all-world PG Chris Paul's. This year Ray will be even more of a leader and have a serious upgrade two his weaponry in Adam Morrison and Walter Herman, making assist numbers come easy. The return of Okefor should allow for more fast breaks as well. 20-4-8? I wouldn't be suprised.




5. Stephon Marbury
$15 shoes and a whole new attitude--remember "the best PG in the league?" Well, it's not Steph, but the days of 20-4-9 could easily return. Will everybody in your league think so? Not a chance.




4. Tracy McGrady
Tom Tolbert calls him Sleepy, and this year it may be doubly appropriate. This is it--Rockets join San Antonio, Dallas, and Phoenix as the West elite. After spending the entire offseason strengthening his core, T-Mac looks efficient and happy in October. Will it last through April? I think so, due to a better Yao and a better breather from bench players. Any heavy preimter D demands can be put on Battier or Wells, and assist numbers must go up with better options all around. Besides, they have to win NOW because they traded away THEIR FUTURE on draft night...


3. Rudy Gay
He slipped to 8 in the draft. Then he was traded. Now he's slotted in at starting 3 and getting the lion's share of plays run for him. Unlike other starting rookies (Morrison, Roy), Gay will be a go-to guy on offense and put up grreat defensive numbers as well. His threeball is pure. And unlike other Memphis bigs you might want to snag while Gasol recuperates, Rudy will continue getting big minutes even when the Spaniard returns. Unless leaguers are really thinking about things, this guy will fall into your lap and produce like a veteran.



2. Josh Smith
The classic breakout year--it seems he, JJ and Marvin figured it out last spring...but learning how to SHOOT and PASS all of a sudden?!? J-Smoove dropped 15-7-4 after the all-star break to go with 1.5 steals, 3 blocks, and 40% from deep. It's almost too god to be true...isn't it?





1. Dwight Howard
Yes, he should go near the top of the draft anyway. But it will be too low. This year, the Manchild becomes The Man--and unlike his idol KG, his rebounding and defensive skills do not seem bounded by a thin frame: some reports list him as bulking up over 25lbs this summer, but the third-year forward at 270lbs. Wait, did I say forward? I meant CENTER. Because that's what he's been playing in preseason. Let the fools waste their high picks on other centers like Yao, Shaq, and Benny Wallaace--this guy plays 82 games a year, will average 24-14-3, and might just make you smile when puts up a 30-20 game no and then.

Line on Stein: Offseason Review

In part 346 of our infamous rivalry, I'm taking on ESPN's Marc Stein and his smug evaluation of the 2006 offseason. For your reference: STEIN ON EAST / STEIN ON WEST


DA BEARS

The worst offseason in the West? Or an off-season Jerry West couldn’t have dreamed of? The ideal situation: give up one uber-role player and lose one star for half the season in return for playing time to develop young cheap talent and a shot at the top of the 2007 draft. The Logo can’t be faulted for Gasol’s foot injury, but rather can only be praised for his tremendous draft which netted him excellent prospects at three positions: Kyle Lowry, Akexander Johnson, and Rudy Gay. Lowry is the toughest PG to enter the draft, will play immaculate defense and add an athletic penetrator to Memphis’ aging backcourt. Gay (along with Swift) for Battier will doubtlessly end up in the Grizzlies favor down the road, especially since Gay will get the minutes to take advantage of Eddie Jones tutelage right away. AJ is a monster rebounder and athletic freak at PF, who will split time with Hakim Warrick and Swift as resident highlight reel regular. It sucks to lose Pau now, but if they come away with either Greg Oden or a marquee SG next summer (when they will have cap space), the Griz will appreciate their misforture and West’s under-the-radar brilliance soon enough.

LIFTOFF?

Tough call on Houston. I would have preferred to trade McGrady and keep Gay, a Pippen-esque shooter-defender that would really fit in on a Jeff-Yao squad with a few years of seasoning. Instead they’re trying to win now, and it’s the right decision if you’re keeping The Mac since his back isn’t getting any better. Shane will be a good fit—can he play PF? Can McGrady play SG? Because they should both be on the floor at once, and Battier rarely guards the Bryants, Iversons, and Wades of the league. Marc neglected to note my favorite new Houstonite, John Lucas III, an incredibly polished playmaker and shooter who will push incumbant Raefer Alston for minutes at the point. I’m excited for Houston’s young blood (Lucas, Chuck Hayes, Steve Novak, Luther Head, and the golden Greek, Vassilis Spanoulis), but it’s up to Tracy’s reportedly fortified core muscles whether tabbing him over Gay as Yao’s partner on the court will pan out.

BUZZ-KILLER

Hornets had THE BEST OFFSEASON? Sure, Peja’s an improvement on their wing play, but how could a Byron-Scott-led team miss out on Rodney Carney in the draft? TWICE?!? I’d expected them to equip themselves with a promising young big, but stacking up on them when you clearly have a hole at shooting guard is ludicrous. Just as Chris Paul would have been the perfect table-setter for Joe Johnson and Josh Smith in Atlanta, Rodney Carney would have been an ideal running mate for the intrepid young point. Today’s NBA grants the advantage to speed, and while Peja is tall, he won’t blow by a paper bag, let alone defend his way out of one. They had a nice offseason, but are probably getting slightly ahead of themselves thinking adding two huge contracts to Stoijakavic and Chandler will be enough to make them playoff-ready.



PHILLY'S COLTS

For someone claiming to be an unabashed Bruce Bowen fan, MS should have dropped a few more kudos in Billy’s lunchbox for adding pure-stopper Bobby Jones to the Sixers’ fold on draft night. For all his rave reviews, Brandon “ROY”Roy would not have been able to lead the Washington Huskies as deep into March without the defensive brilliance of Jones at his side. If Maurice Cheeks has the balls to bench Korver enough to give Jones and fellow all-world athlete Rodney Carney time at the swing position, Philly might just have the young legs to rejuvenate its running game this fall. Though the frontcourt still has tremendous holes on D (from lacksidasical Sam and immobile Chris), an Iverson-Iguodala-Jones-Carney rotation will certainly pick off a few more passes and hold down the perimeter on both ends of the floor.

SUNDOWN

Phoenix misses Colangelo already. I would rate their offseason even lower than Marcy Marc did—how would they have fared against the Lakers in April without Eddie House and Tim Thomas? Did they really need to exchange their two first round picks for cash instead of, I don’t know, booking Sergio Rodriguez or Kyle Lowry on the cheap as Stevie Wonder’s back-up / successor? Jumaine Jones will help some, but they essentially stretched their bench thinner this summer, which isn’t too safe considering the health concerns to Nash, Kurt Thomas, and that other guy we haven’t seen in a while…


LAKE PLACID

Why couldn't we just have a calm offseason? As a Laker fan, I hate the pickup of Vlad Rad. If you play him and Odom at the same time, does that mean VR guards SF’s, the most athletic position in the league? Shooters are good; speed and passing are better, and Radmanociv isn’t noted for either. Kind of like Brian Cook…if this limits their ability to go under the cap, I wrinkle my brow in its general direction. JR/Danilo Pinnock looks interesting from summer leage play, and Farmar might add some point savy, but it’s basically up to Lamar to play the triangle like he did after the all-star break and up to Kwame and Bynum to become more assertive on both ends.



MORMONS

Stein left out one significant addition to Utah’s roster: Ronnie Brewer. The additions of Brewer and Fisher will give the Jazz enough ball-handling on the floor to allow Deron “Darren” Williams to be the shooter he should be. Ronnie also adds much needed athleticism and Greyhound speed end-to-end. Also, Jerry Sloan’s wedding is a big offseason move—congratulations are in order.

PACE THIS
Indiana did not have the third best offseason in the east. They are practically rebuilding. Al Harrington didn’t work the first time, and will only squander minutes away from up-and-comer Danny Granger. No Peja, no Artest, no Fred Jones, no Croshier—who’s hitting outside shots again, Stephen Gansta? Does this mean we get to see Saurunas J. play now? Other than trading for James “Flight” White on draft day and re-signing Rick Carlisle, I don’t get this club.

LATER, TJ
As in, “Later, TJ will be missed”. Don’t get me wrong—good move for the Bucks to establish a Villenueva-Bogut tandem for the future. Too bad it’s not a Chris Paul—Michael Redd-Bobby Simmons—Villenueva foursome though…

NJN
I like the Nets offseason more than Detroit’s or Washington’s. Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, and Mile Ilic immediately give Lawrence Frank key components to energize the precision running game for one last run to bring the Meadowlands to the Finals. A healthy RJ, Carter’s contract year, and Kidd seeing his window barely open with Detroit one man down and Miami one year older will all contribute to a huge comeback year for the Nets: able bodies and skill sets backing up each position will make for favorable rotations and limit the chances of their brittle starters running out of steam before June.

KNICKERTALKER

Be prepared. The most significant moves of the off-season were clearly the Ben Wallace singing and the class of ’03 re-signing, but only slightly less monumental were the coaching changes. Don Nelson will retool the Warriors to the tune of Run TMC’s high-octane offense. Pat Riley will squeeze every ounce of attention out of a Heat team growing more veteran by the minute. But most of all, Isaih Thomas brings the league’s flagship team to a storied crossroads that rival no other. At the helm, he will sink or swim as they do. Thomas and Marbury (and to a lesser extent, Francis) have everything at stake: careers, reputations, future employment, respect. Believe this—this coaching change MUST make all the difference.

Dr. Naismith, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love LeBron

I hope someone in the Committee (is at least friends with someone who) reads FreeDarko, because in said column Senor Brickowski has tooted the conch of reason in regard to the singularly egregious error it would be to dub Steve Nash the MVP for the second consecutive season. Here’s the Dwayne Johnson-solid case to exclude Nashty, along with two-bits worth of analogy/projection:

Historical (Brick’s point): The only back-to-back (and, coincidentally, back-to-the-basket) Mo-Pod People are Russell, Chamberlain, Kareem, Moses, Larry, Magic, Michael and Duncan -- 1rst ballot Hall-of-Famers who have won an average of 5 championships apiece. The Mailman is the only two-timer who remains ringless, and he didn’t win consecutively. And he’s been to the finals thrice; St. Steven has yet to be. Last year’s crowning signaled the anti-Artest era and the dawning of the No-Perimeter-Contact rule change appropriately, but a repeat would be over the top. The one-MVP echelon (inhabited by Sir Charles, the Dream, the Admiral, the Answer, and the Big Ticket) is plenty high-esteem for the Canadian.



Philosophical: Best Team vs Best Performer – ideally you have a Venn Diagram that limits your choices for the league’s top honor. This year, Little Stevie is subsetless. Neither are the Suns the best team nor is Steve the most impressive player. The pundits have two standard counters to this—A) Nash is having a better year than last when he won the award, and B) Nash has done it again with a weaker/totally different supporting cast. Allow me to illuminate the obvious—last year’s choice was political (see below), and this year’s Suns are deeper and better. Attribute this to excellent coaching/GMing. Stevo is performing better, and he should be. That still doesn’t change the fact that he’s not the best performer in the league, that he’s not on the best team, and (as some contest) that he’s not even the best player on his team. According to the general thinking, these are strikes against the former striker (he played soccer in highschool, eh).



Political: The “Denzel wins Best Actor for Training Day” theory may have worked for Malone in the 90’s, but the NBA doesn’t buy the “body of work gone unrecognized for too long” argument any more. Instead, D-Stern’s cronies thought it best to reward the opposite of hip-hopified, Pacers-Pistons Palace Prostration, me-first play. This not only effectively snubbed Shaquille “MDE” O’Neal, but Jason Kidd and John Stockton as well. Their careers include dozens of seasons better than Nash’s past two, yet THEY WERE NOT THE BEST PLAYER IN THE LEAGUE AND THUS COULD NOT WIN MVP despite great team success. If the league wants to be political again and reward the concept of the team, give it to Billups and his 19-3-8 year. If you have to.



Pragmatic: You have to give the MVP to somebody. Unfortunately, there are no clear-cut choices—your ideal MVP is the following:

1. Undebatably All NBA First Team
2. By Far the Best Player on His Team
3. On the Best Team of the Regular Season
4. Leading/Elevating His Team to a Championship Run
5. Not a 3rd Year Player
6. Not an International Player
7. Not a Sociopath

Kobe “La Mamba” Bryant beats Nash on 2 and 6 (though Nash talks pretty good ‘merican, and KB did grow up in Italy), but loses on 3 and probably 4—plus some people still spite him with a touch of 7 (usually reserved for TruWarrier). Billups and Parker are having career years on the two top teams, but clearly aren’t more integral than their teammates (2) and unlikely to pass Nash for All NBA honors (1). Keep the Elton Brand talk to yourself, Tom Tolbert. D-Wade and Dirk Diggler have played at traditional MVP levels for championship contention caliber teams—odds are one of them comes away with the hardware if the voters can get over Flash’s youth and Nowitzki’s work visa. But my horse is a darker color…



With nine games left, LeBron James has the Cleveland Cavalliers at 44 wins. They could easily see 50. Every vote for Brand (ie. Leading a Long-Lost Lottery Team to the Promised Land) goes to Bron. He puts more points on the board than all but two players, he’s more efficient than La Mamba and has a better record than AI. He’s singlehandedly put the smack down on both Miami and Dallas and their leading candidates. He plays 43 minutes per because he has to. He has the best parts of Kobe’s, Dwyane’s, and Steve’s games combined. Nash has Diaw to create and everyone else to finish. Nowitzki has defenders and sparkplugs a plenty. Wade has this big guy I heard about.

And here’s the thing: LB23 has a team of tweeners. There is not one player on his team that would start for Dallas, Phoenix, San Antonio, Detroit, or Miami. I like Danny Ferry and all, but they assembled the wrong team – a center that can’t run. Shooters that can’t shoot. Guards that can’t penetrate. Star sidekicks who are ALWAYS INJURED, even in their contract year. More than any team – even the Lakers, and especially the Suns – the success of this team depends on one 21-year-old man. The Man.



Don't look back, Sire. The only possible concern is that your team isn’t good enough or you're too young. But Nash’s squad is third in his conference and nobody faults him. He has no Stoudemire, yes; but you have no Marion, no Diaw, no Bell, etc. Switch the King and the Weasel and see if the Cavs can get 50. And can we just take a moment to imagine LeBron working under the offensive brilliance of Magic Mike?

Dear NBA: Learn to stop worrying that if you give LeBron the MVP now, he’ll take the next ten trophies home. He should. And we would love it.


Consolation prizes include Coach of the Year for D’Antoni, Executive for Colangelo, MIP for Boris, championship for Dwyane, and more to gripe about for Chauncey. Everybody’s happy.