The Big Sleep

As the autumnal foliage lays a crimson blanket under which the Northern sun prepares to hibernate for the next six months, thousands (millions?) around the globe turns their swollen eyes to computer and television screens to survey the vast wealth of talent that may prove to awaken as the ultimate sleeper selection in upcoming NBA fantasy drafts. Who will find their diamond in the rough? And who will waste selections on fool's gold while waiver players brimming with talent would be a wiser bet? My take is as follows:

Sleeper, n.
A player who will perform much better than people generally expect, often under one or more of the following conditions:

A) The Breakout Season -- for young players who are in the same situation, but ready to put it (occasional flashes of brilliance) all together (consistant production / lack of injury). Gerald Wallace. Josh Smith. Dwight Howard. These are names you will hear on the "Ready to Break Out" list.

B) Team Change -- Being traded or having PT open up on your roster allows you to shine. Production is proportional to situation and minutes. Zach Randolph won MIP two years ago because his minutes doubled. Steve Nash won two MVPs because he joined a team custom-built to give him assists.

C) Coaching Change -- A new coach or philosophy will dramatically affect numbers. Nellie will increase the volume of possesions and the minutes of perimeter players in Golden State, boding well for Monta Ellis and less so for Ike Diogu. Boston has the same coach, but aquiring Telfair and Rondo in the off-season ensures more of a running game. Sure teams will score more against these guys, but players on the Celtics and Warriors will all increase production due to increased number of shots (and assists, and rebounds...)

D) Post-Injury -- People forget about good players who were just injured the previous season; Tracy McGrady put up a ho-hum 24-6-4 last season and will CERTAINLY improve upon that this year. But if you look at the SG/SF rankings, you won't find him in the top 5, even 10 in some drafts. Also, how will Diaw's numbers be affected with the return of Amare after microfracture surgery?

E) The Rookie Year -- It's hard to accurately estimate how well rookies will play. Thus, any rookie could be a sleeper if you make the right guess. My money's on Rudy Gay: he's shooting over 15 FGAs per in the preseason, along with 2 steals and 1.7 blocks in 26 minutes. Pau's injury will open up not only minutes, but a go-to scoring option that Rudy will likely become before season's end.

F) The Contract Year--people play better when they wanna get paid. Watch out for Vince Carter, among others. This is a factor to be considered, and will bump production from otherwise uninteresting prospects.





So, who not to sleep on?




10. Nene
This man is a beast--the only one of "my guys" from the '02 draft (Yao, Manu, and Amare) yet to destroy the league--and the combination of his full recovery, Camby's brittleness and K-Mart's dis-favor with George Karl makes the Brazillian millionaire a prime sleeper candidate, considering he was out 81 games last season. He is a tremendous athlete, an excellent passer, and exactly what the Nuggets need in the pain on both ends of the floor. The premium on centers makes him an excellent late pick-up--he beats out Kwame Brown by a hair...




9. TJ Ford
The new general in Toronto--that doens't sound like much, until you consider he is to the Raptors what Steve Nash was the the Suns: a Brian Colangelo franchise-changer. They traded a rookie-scale PF who shoots threes and dropped 48 points last season to get this guy: he WILL perform. He is already besties with Chris Bosh, a good sign. No three-ball, but expect Jason Kidd-like numbers from the former collegiate Player of the Year.



8. Mike Dunlevy
Last season, I HATED Mike D. Now I'm intrigued: new coach Don Nelson insists he'll play him at Point-Forward, and he'll likely be elligble at PF early on. Given the coaching change and their lack of big-men with run-and-gun skill, Dunlevy is up for a boost in minutes, touches, and confidence since Nellie made him a captain. Expect increases all around, especially in points and assists.


7. Charlie Villenueva
On the other side of the Ford deal, the Bucks not only cleared out their frontcourt to give Charlie V minutes, they lost Andrew Bogut for the first six weeks leaving all the low-post touches to their newest rising star. He may struggle at first, but this man has 20-9-4 potential, as assuming Bogut's role of high-post passer in the preseason has demonstrated. Excellent 3pt stroke as well. Nasty.




6. Raymond Felton
Mentor Brevin Knight just twisted his ankle, and someone will need put in the minutes to cover those 8.8 assists. Last year's stats won't show it, but Felton's second half was nearly as good as all-world PG Chris Paul's. This year Ray will be even more of a leader and have a serious upgrade two his weaponry in Adam Morrison and Walter Herman, making assist numbers come easy. The return of Okefor should allow for more fast breaks as well. 20-4-8? I wouldn't be suprised.




5. Stephon Marbury
$15 shoes and a whole new attitude--remember "the best PG in the league?" Well, it's not Steph, but the days of 20-4-9 could easily return. Will everybody in your league think so? Not a chance.




4. Tracy McGrady
Tom Tolbert calls him Sleepy, and this year it may be doubly appropriate. This is it--Rockets join San Antonio, Dallas, and Phoenix as the West elite. After spending the entire offseason strengthening his core, T-Mac looks efficient and happy in October. Will it last through April? I think so, due to a better Yao and a better breather from bench players. Any heavy preimter D demands can be put on Battier or Wells, and assist numbers must go up with better options all around. Besides, they have to win NOW because they traded away THEIR FUTURE on draft night...


3. Rudy Gay
He slipped to 8 in the draft. Then he was traded. Now he's slotted in at starting 3 and getting the lion's share of plays run for him. Unlike other starting rookies (Morrison, Roy), Gay will be a go-to guy on offense and put up grreat defensive numbers as well. His threeball is pure. And unlike other Memphis bigs you might want to snag while Gasol recuperates, Rudy will continue getting big minutes even when the Spaniard returns. Unless leaguers are really thinking about things, this guy will fall into your lap and produce like a veteran.



2. Josh Smith
The classic breakout year--it seems he, JJ and Marvin figured it out last spring...but learning how to SHOOT and PASS all of a sudden?!? J-Smoove dropped 15-7-4 after the all-star break to go with 1.5 steals, 3 blocks, and 40% from deep. It's almost too god to be true...isn't it?





1. Dwight Howard
Yes, he should go near the top of the draft anyway. But it will be too low. This year, the Manchild becomes The Man--and unlike his idol KG, his rebounding and defensive skills do not seem bounded by a thin frame: some reports list him as bulking up over 25lbs this summer, but the third-year forward at 270lbs. Wait, did I say forward? I meant CENTER. Because that's what he's been playing in preseason. Let the fools waste their high picks on other centers like Yao, Shaq, and Benny Wallaace--this guy plays 82 games a year, will average 24-14-3, and might just make you smile when puts up a 30-20 game no and then.